No two ways about it: DISSOLVE the Perak State Assembly

If fresh state elections are held, Pakatan Rakyat may sweep at least 40 seats, leaving Umno with just 19 seats. MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP will not win a single seat.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

No by-elections, says EC - so what happens now?

The political turmoil in Perak has taken on a new twist with Election Commission chairperson Abdul Aziz reportedly saying that no by-elections would be held because of doubts over the resignation letters of the two state assembly members.

Aziz pointed out that assembly members had submitted letters to deny their validity of the resignation letters submitted by the Perak Speaker.

Where does this leave Perak?

Of course, the Pakatan still has a majority of one, but if that is threatened, then they have the option of dissolving the assembly and calling for fresh elections. – Anil Netto

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That was what Anil Netto asked in his Blog today (http://anilnetto.com/). I have no time to write my normal five-page ‘cheong hei’ article because I am rushing off for a meeting with my lawyers (I have three court cases over four days next week and they want to prepare for them).

So, in the few minutes that I have left, allow me to sum up as follows.

Pakatan Rakyat started out with 31 seats in the Perak State Assembly against Barisan Nasional’s 28. This means if just two Pakatan Rakyat State Assemblymen cross over, Barisan Nasional would have 30 seats against Pakatan Rakyat’s 29. This would also mean Barisan Nasional will form the new Perak state government with a majority of one seat.

While Barisan Nasional was working on these two ‘candidates’ to cross over -- the Changat Jering and Behrang State Assemblyman -- one Umno State Assemblyman crossed over to Pakatan Rakyat. Now, Barisan Nasional needs three Pakatan Rakyat State Assemblymen to cross over instead of just two.

Today, the Elections Commission rejected the resignation letters of the Changkat Jering and Behrang State Assemblymen. This means they can now join Barisan Nasional -- so Barisan Nasional will now have 29 seats against Pakatan Rakyat’s 30. All Barisan Nasional needs is just one more cross-over from Pakatan Rakyat and they will form the new Perak state government.

This not only can happen. It most likely will happen.

Pakatan Rakyat has no other choice. It has to dissolve the Perak State Assembly and call for fresh state elections. Note one thing here. It is not actually Barisan Nasional versus Pakatan Rakyat. It is Umno versus Pakatan Rakyat. From the 29 seats that Barisan Nasional now has, 28 are from Umno and only one from MCA -- with NONE from the other 12 Barisan Nasional component members.

However, to dissolve the Perak State Assembly, Pakatan Rakyat must first obtain the consent of the Sultan of Perak. Will the Sultan give his consent? Many feel the answer is no. Therefore Pakatan Rakyat will be ‘locked’ with a one-seat majority that may turn out to be a one-seat minority in the very near future.

If fresh state elections are held, Pakatan Rakyat may sweep at least 40 seats, leaving Umno with just 19 seats. MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP will not win a single seat. That is why Umno would not want fresh state elections, or even two by-elections. If they allow this to happen they will get wiped out and Pakatan Rakyat will increase its margin of seats even more. With a 21-seat majority it will be impossible for Barisan Nasional to continue dreaming about taking over Perak.

Where do we go from here? I wish I knew. I, on the other hand, am off to my lawyers to see whether they can keep me out of jail and the Kamunting Detention Centre.

Till later. In the meantime, I hope Pakatan Rakyat can see the logic of dissolving the Perak State Assembly so that fresh state elections can be held. That would be the only way to hold on to Perak. - Malaysia Today

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